The End of Affirmative Action: Admissions One Year Later

In June 2023, the Supreme Court struck down race-conscious admissions in the landmark cases against Harvard and the University of North Carolina. This ruling fundamentally changed how higher education institutions build their incoming classes. Now, with the enrollment data for the Class of 2028 finalized, we finally have a concrete look at the immediate aftermath. The results describe a complex, uneven reality across America’s top universities.

The "Cliff" at MIT and Amherst

The most dramatic shifts occurred at institutions that rely heavily on standardized test scores or have smaller class sizes. These schools provided the clearest example of what happens when race is removed as a specific data point in the admissions file.

Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) released numbers that stunned many observers. The percentage of Black students in the incoming freshman class plummeted to 5%, down from 15% in previous years. Similarly, Hispanic and Latino enrollment dropped from 16% to 11%.

Amherst College, a prestigious liberal arts school in Massachusetts, reported similar declines. Black student enrollment at Amherst fell from 11% in the Class of 2027 to just 3% in the Class of 2028. This phenomenon suggests that without the specific lever of affirmative action, highly selective schools with rigorous quantitative standards struggled to maintain racial diversity using only socioeconomic proxies or essay questions.

The Mixed Results of the Ivy League

While MIT saw sharp declines, the Ivy League schools presented a much more varied picture. The data suggests that different admissions offices interpreted the “allowable” consideration of race (through essays and life experience) differently.

Harvard University As one of the defendants in the Supreme Court case, Harvard’s numbers were highly anticipated. The university reported a four-point drop in Black enrollment, falling from 18% to 14%. However, Hispanic enrollment actually increased slightly, rising to 16%.

Yale and Princeton In contrast to Harvard and MIT, Yale University reported that its diversity numbers remained largely stable. Black enrollment at Yale stayed flat at 14%, and Hispanic enrollment rose to 19%. Princeton saw a decrease in Black enrollment (from roughly 9% to 8%) but not the statistical collapse seen at MIT.

Brown University Brown experienced a significant contraction in diversity. The share of Black students in its freshman class dropped by 40%, falling to 9% of the total class. Hispanic enrollment also decreased significantly, dropping from 14% to 10%.

Did Asian American Enrollment Surge?

A central argument of Students for Fair Admissions (SFFA), the group that sued Harvard and UNC, was that affirmative action penalized Asian American applicants. The expectation from SFFA supporters was that ending the practice would lead to a significant rise in Asian American acceptance rates.

The actual data from the Class of 2028 is contradictory:

At MIT: The theory held true. Asian American enrollment jumped from 40% to 47%.
At Harvard: The numbers remained exactly the same at 37%, defying predictions of a post-ruling spike.
At Yale and Duke: Asian American enrollment actually declined. At Duke, it fell from 35% to 29%.

This variance indicates that while race-conscious admissions may have capped Asian enrollment at some technical institutes, other factors—such as legacy admissions, athletic recruitment, and geographic diversity—continue to influence class composition at the Ivies.

Public Universities and the "Yield" Factor

The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill (UNC), the other defendant in the Supreme Court case, saw its Black enrollment drop from 10.5% to 7.8%.

However, admissions officers note that acceptance rates are only half the story. The other half is “yield”—the percentage of accepted students who choose to attend. Following the ruling, reports surfaced that minority students felt less welcome at institutions that were at the center of the legal battle. This cultural sentiment may have contributed to lower enrollment numbers at schools like UNC and Amherst, regardless of how many students were actually offered admission.

New Strategies: Socioeconomics and Essays

In the majority opinion, Chief Justice John Roberts wrote that universities could still consider how race affected an applicant’s life, “be it through discrimination, inspiration, or otherwise.”

Universities leaned heavily on this exception. For the Class of 2028, many schools introduced new essay prompts specifically asking about “lived experience” or navigating challenges.

Additionally, schools pivoted toward socioeconomic diversity as a legal proxy for racial diversity.

University of Virginia (UVA): While Black enrollment dropped significantly, the school noted a rise in Pell Grant recipients (students from low-income families).
Duke University: Duke was one of the few elite schools to see an increase in Black enrollment. Administrators attributed this to aggressive recruitment in lower-income zip codes and expanded financial aid programs.

The Future of Legacy Admissions

With affirmative action gone, scrutiny has turned toward legacy admissions—the practice of giving preference to children of alumni. Critics argue that if schools cannot use race to help disadvantaged groups, they should not use lineage to help advantaged ones.

Since the ruling, several schools, including Wesleyan University and Virginia Tech, have voluntarily ended legacy preferences. The data from the Class of 2028 has emboldened activists to push for a nationwide ban on legacy admissions, viewing it as the next necessary step to level the playing field.

Frequently Asked Questions

Did the Supreme Court ban all discussions of race in admissions? No. The Court ruled that colleges cannot use race as a standalone factor or check-box. However, students are allowed to discuss their racial identity in personal essays, provided the college considers it based on individual character or unique life experiences.

Which schools saw the biggest drop in diversity? MIT, Amherst College, Tufts University, and Brown University reported some of the sharpest declines in Black and Hispanic enrollment for the Class of 2028.

Why didn’t Asian American enrollment go up everywhere? Admissions are a zero-sum game influenced by many factors, including geography, intended major, athletics, and legacy status. While Asian enrollment rose at MIT, it stayed flat or dropped at several Ivy League schools, suggesting that the removal of affirmative action did not automatically open spots for Asian applicants at every institution.

Are these numbers permanent? Likely not. This was the first cycle under the new laws. Universities are actively adjusting their recruitment strategies, financial aid offers, and essay questions to legally build diverse classes. We expect these numbers to fluctuate over the next few years as admissions offices refine their new models.